Tuesday, November 18, 2008

Satire: How to rule the stock mkts !!!

a bit old but really gud!
Once upon a time in a village, a man appeared and announced to the villagers that he would buy monkeys for Rs10.
The villagers seeing that there were many monkeys around, went out to the forest and started catching them
The man bought thousands at Rs10 and as supply started to diminish, the villagers stopped their effort. He further announced that he would now buy at Rs20. This renewed the efforts of the villagers and they started catching monkeys again.
Soon the supply diminished even further and people started going back to their farms. The offer rate increased to Rs25 and the supply of monkeys became so little that it was an effort to even see a monkey, let alone catch it!
The man now announced that he would buy monkeys at Rs50! However, since he had to go to the city on some business, his assistant would now buy on behalf of him.
In the absence of the man, the assistant told the villagers. Look at all these monkeys in the big cage that the man has collected I will sell them to you at Rs35 and when the man returns from the city, you can sell it to him for Rs50."
The villagers squeezed up with all their savings and bought all the monkeys.
Then they never saw the man nor his assistant, only monkeys everywhere!!!
Welcome to the "Stock" Market!!!!!

Warren Buffet: Berkshire Hathaway Shareholders meeting at Omaha 2008

Hello Friends
I just got this article forwarded through my friends. I found it really good and would like to share it.
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I had the good fortune to attend the 2008- Berkshire Hathaway Shareholders meeting at Omaha, Nebraska a few weeks back.
It was a wonderful experience listening to and learning from the Master Investor- Warren Buffett himself and all I can say is that he stands alone as the reigning deity of financial world's Mt Olympus!
The degree of humility and composure he exhibited, although he is the richest and most well respected human is stunning!
I tried to take some notes and would like to share with you some of the best questions and answers which came across during the conversation between we mortals and God.
Having read about him, observed him and worshipped him for a few years now, I think it is reasonable to believe that this guy is exactly what he seems: a plain-speaking, tee totaling man of uncrackable integrity who works really, really hard and sticks to his investing and management principles through boom and bust which makes him a freak of nature since he is above normal human tendencies. He is like a comet streaking through the heavens every 75 years or so.
The questions the shareholders threw at him for 7 continuous hours ranged from finances, life, religion, career, politics, sports and several other streams. And he answered everything with a Zen like calm and confidence.
Even if you are least bothered about investments and finances, I insist, Pl read on.
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What does it take to become a successful investor? Brilliance or Smartness?
Neither, Success in investing doesn't correlate with I.Q. Once you have ordinary intelligence, what you need is the temperament to control the urges that gets other people into trouble in investing.
When do you deicide to invest in a firm?
The best thing that happens to us is when a great company gets into temporary trouble. We want to buy them when they're on the operating table. (Mr. Buffett bought Coke when it had its biggest fiasco after launching New Coke; he bought American Express when it went through a loss making phase in the early 60's)
What do you look for in people when they come to sell their firms to you?
I don't look for the usual credentials such as an MBA, a pedigree (Harvard, Wharton), or cash reserves or market cap of their firm. What I look for is just a passion in their eyes; I think that's the key. A person who is hungry will always do well. I prefer it when people even after selling stay on and work for the firm; they are people who can't wait to get off their bed to get to work. Passion is everything; there is no replacement for innate interest.
Mr. Buffett, you told us that Berkshire Hathaway has $ 45 Billion in cash. Why aren't you investing?
Up until a few years back I had more ideas than money. Now I have more money than ideas.
When do you plan to retire?
I love my job; I love it so much that I tap dance to work. Mrs. B, the founder of Nebraska Furniture Mark worked until she was 104, she died within 6 months of her retirement, that's a lesson to all my managers, don't retire! I personally am going to work 6-7 years after I die, probably that's what they mean when they say- "Thinking out of the Box"!!
Why do stock market crashes happen?
Because of human nature for greed and insecurity. The 1970s were unbelievable. The world wasn't going to end, but businesses were being given away. Human nature has not changed. People will always behave in a manic-depressive way over time. They will offer great values to you."
What are the things that are taught wrong in Business school and the corporate world?
I like such open ended questions, I think Business schools should refrain from teaching their wards about profit making and profit making alone, it gives a sense of 1 dimensional outlook to the young students that loss is a curse. In reality, in the corporate world, failure and loss making are inevitable. The capital market without loss is like Christianity without hell. I think they should teach the student on how to buy a business, how to value a business? Not just on how to determine the price of a business. Because price is what you pay, value is what you get.
Do you still hate Technology stocks?
With Coke I can come up with a very rational figure for the cash it will generate in the future. But with the top 10 Internet companies, how much cash will they produce over the next 25 years? If you say you don't know, then you don't know what it is worth and you are speculating, not investing. All I know is that I don't know, and if I don't know, I don't invest."
How to think about Investing?
The first investment primer was written by Aesop in 600 B.C. He said, 'A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.' Aesop forgot to say when you get the two in the bush and what interest rates are; investing is simply figuring out your cash outlay (the bird in the hand) and comparing it to how many birds are in the bush and when you get them."
How do you feel after donating $ 40 Billion to the Bill and Melinda Gates foundation? You are a hero to us!
I feel nothing. I haven't sacrificed anything in life. I have had a good life. I donated after I turned 75. I think I admire those people who sacrifice their time, share their food and home, as the people to be emulated not me. Besides, what is money before a man's life?
What do you think are the pitfalls in donation?
I have never donated a dime to churches or other such organizations; I need to believe in something before I end up doing that. I have been observing the Bill & Melinda Gates foundation for years now and I am confident they will do a fantastic job of making use of the money. I am a big believer in Outsourcing, others believed in me as an Investor and gave their hard earned money to invest. I believe in Bill Gates, he is a better donor than me.
Why do you work from Omaha and not Wall Street, New York?
Wall Street is the only place where people alight from Rolls Royce to get advised by people who use the Public transportation system.
You seem to be so well read, tell us how it all started.
My father was a stock broker, so we had all these financial books in our library. He introduced me to those classics and I got into them. I am lucky that my father was not a fan of Playboy! Reading is the best habit you can get. Well, you can learn from teachers too, and have mentors but there are so many constraints attached- they will talk fast, talk slow, they might talk like a pro or they might be terrible communicators. Books are a different animal altogether, I love reading! The beauty about reading and learning is that the more you learn the more you want to learn.
People who join Berkshire Hathaway seldom leave. How do you get along well with all your executives?
I try to get quality people. I always say - Hire someone in your organization who is better than you are. If you do that, you build a company of giants. If you get people worse than yourself, you build a company of dwarfs. And do not try to do everything yourself. Delegate the jobs and look out of the window. The results will come. That's how you build institutions. It happens only when you empower others, believe in others. Iam an investor, Iam very secured at that, I have no clue how to make Coca-Cola or how to dole out credit cards (Mr. Buffett owns 8% of Coca-Cola and 13 % of American Express). I understand the wisdom of the aphorism that you cannot please all the people all the time. Of Course, you will always find qualities that you don't like in people around you, but if you observe carefully the love of the work unites you both. There is no point in being obsessive about a bad quality in a person, whom you otherwise respect.
I am a small time businessman from Dallas, Texas, what do I need to do to hit big time?
Be patient, Achieving your financial goals and dreams will not happen overnight. As much as we would all really love to accomplish our goals in a few years, this is an ongoing process. Defining your financial goals is not a one-time task; you need to keep adding new plans at different stages in your life. We all admire the skills of Olympic ice skaters, pro golfers, and concert pianists. But do we remember that they didn't acquire their skills overnight? They had to practice hours on end for years to achieve their dreams. The key to success is to continue learning throughout your life with a voracious appetite.
I think it is marvelous that you have had a golden run with investing, how did you do that?
My rule is to be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful. Besides, I call investing the greatest job in the world because you never have to swing. You stand at the plate; the pitcher throws you General Motors at 47! U.S. Steel at 39! And nobody calls a strike on you. There's no penalty except opportunity lost. All day you wait for the pitch you like; then when the fielders are asleep, you step up and hit it. Stay dispassionate and be patient. You're dealing with a lot of silly people in the marketplace; it's like a great big casino and everyone else is boozing. If you can stick with drinking Coke, you should be OK. First the crowd is boozy on optimism and buying every new issue in sight. The next moment it is boozy on pessimism, buying gold bars and predicting another Great Depression, most people get interested in stocks when everyone else is. The time to get interested is when no one else is. You can't buy what is popular and do well.
Mr. Buffett you have seen so many crashes and recessions, your take on facing recessions and stock market crashes?
If past history was all there was to the game, the richest people would be librarians. Every scenario is different. But always remember, Tough times do not last. Tough people do.
What is the 1 biggest advice you would impart to a young investor like me?
Think for a moment that you are given a car and told this is the only car you would get for the rest of your life. Then you would make sure that you car is taken care of well, it is oiled and detailed every now and then. You would make sure that it never gets rusted, and you would garage it. Think of yourself as that car. You just get 1 body, 1 mind and 1 soul. Take care of it well. Invest in yourself that would be my advice.
You personally know many of the Financial executives who are engineers of the current turmoil in the financial world, surprisingly even after record losses, those executives receive astronomical salaries and bonuses and arrogantly declare that they deserve it, why dint you advice them from making such decisions and what's your view on their justification for their pay?
I like sharing my ideas but don't like imposing my ideas on anybody. It doesn't make sense and is a waste of time. If somebody has decided that they know everything that is there to know, nobody can help them. The best way to learn and succeed is to know that we know nothing. There is an entire universe out there and still some of us think we can know everything. In the world of investing a few people after making some money tend to imagine they are invincible and great. This is the worst thing that could happen to any investor, because it surely means that the investor will end up taking unnecessary risks and end up losing everything – arrogance, ego and overconfidence are very lethal. Personally I don't feel too comfortable with too much extravagance, because I always think like an investor. My thought process doesn't see a lot of value in a fancy car or a designer suit. Thinking like an investor always is very important to bring in a sense of discipline and focus. Before reading balance sheets and investing you need to make sure your outlook and mindset is that of an investor. Never let ego, arrogance and over-confidence control you - not just as an investor but also as a human being. You will never have internal peace if you are unable to look at everybody around you with love, compassion and understanding. Irrespective of who the person is, he or she can teach you something you don't know. I have learnt so much from people all around me and I wouldn't have been able to learn all these wonderful things if I had not spoken to them with a smile. To quote Sir Isaac Newton- If I have seen farther than others, it is because I have stood on the shoulders of giants.

It was a 7 hour conversation and I could just capture some of the best questions and answers. As 37,000+ dazed, amazed and grateful shareholders trooped out of the stadium after the meeting, I found myself recalling one of my favorite quotes-
"A man has to learn that he cannot command things, but that he can command himself; that he cannot coerce the wills of others, but that he can mold and master his own will: and things serve him who serves truth; people seek guidance of him who is master of himself".

Tuesday, November 4, 2008

Satire: How to get Bankrupt?

Funny but true:
Once there was a little island country. The land of this country was thetiny island itself. The total money in circulation was 2 dollars as therewere only two pieces of 1 dollar coins circulating around.
1) There were 3 citizens living on this island country. A owned the land.B and C each owned 1 dollar.
2) B decided to purchase the land from A for 1 dollar. So, now A and C own1 dollar each while B owned a piece of land that is worth 1 dollar.
* The net asset of the country now = 3 dollars.
3) Now C thought that since there is only one piece of land in the country,and land is non producible asset, its value must definitely go up. So, heborrowed 1 dollar from A, and together with his own 1 dollar, he bought theland from B for 2 dollars.
*A has a loan to C of 1 dollar, so his net asset is 1 dollar.* B sold his land and got 2 dollars, so his net asset is 2 dollars.* C owned the piece of land worth 2 dollars but with his 1 dollar debt toA, his net residual asset is 1 dollar.* Thus, the net asset of the country = 4 dollars.
4) A saw that the land he once owned has risen in value. He regrettedhaving sold it. Luckily, he has a 1 dollar loan to C. He then borrowed 2dollars from B and acquired the land back from C for 3 dollars. The paymentis by 2 dollars cash (which he borrowed) and cancellation of the 1 dollarloan to C. As a result, A now owned a piece of land that is worth 3dollars. But since he owed B 2 dollars, his net asset is 1 dollar.
* B loaned 2 dollars to A. So his net asset is 2 dollars.* C now has the 2 coins. His net asset is also 2 dollars.* The net asset of the country = 5 dollars. A bubble is building up.
(5) B saw that the value of land kept rising. He also wanted to own theland. So he bought the land from A for 4 dollars. The payment is byborrowing 2 dollars from C, and cancellation of his 2 dollars loan to A.
* As a result, A has got his debt cleared and he got the 2 coins. His netasset is 2 dollars.* B owned a piece of land that is worth 4 dollars, but since he has a debtof 2 dollars with C, his net Asset is 2 dollars.* C loaned 2 dollars to B, so his net asset is 2 dollars.
* The net asset of the country = 6 dollars; even though, the country hasonly one piece of land and 2 Dollars in circulation.
(6) Everybody has made money and everybody felt happy and prosperous.
(7) One day an evil wind blew, and an evil thought came to C's mind. "Hey,what if the land price stop going up, how could B repay my loan. There isonly 2 dollars in circulation, and, I think after all the land that B ownsis worth at most only 1 dollar, and no more."
(8) A also thought the same way.
(9) Nobody wanted to buy land anymore.
* So, in the end, A owns the 2 dollar coins, his net asset is 2 dollars.* B owed C 2 dollars and the land he owned which he thought worth 4 dollarsis now 1 dollar. So his net asset is only 1 dollar.* C has a loan of 2 dollars to B. But it is a bad debt. Although his netasset is still 2 dollars, his Heart is palpitating.* The net asset of the country = 3 dollars again.
(10) So, who has stolen the 3 dollars from the country ? Of course, beforethe bubble burst B thought his land was worth 4 dollars. Actually, rightbefore the collapse, the net asset of the country was 6 dollars on paper.B's net asset is still 2 dollars, his heart is palpitating.
(11) B had no choice but to declare bankruptcy. C as to relinquish his 2dollars bad debt to B, but in return he acquired the land which is worth 1dollar now.
* A owns the 2 coins, his net asset is 2 dollars.* B is bankrupt, his net asset is 0 dollar. ( he lost everything )* C got no choice but end up with a land worth only 1 dollar
* The net asset of the country = 3 dollars !!!?

Friday, October 3, 2008

Petro Euro Vs Petro Dollar- Good Eye Opener

Hello Friends

I haven't written this article myself, but came across it via forwarded mails.

But neverthless, I have checked the validity of the facts stated in the article.

It is indeed an eye opener.

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Petro-Euro Vs Petro-Dollar - Good Eye opener
Why the Dollar Bubble is about to Burst? IRAN HAS REALLY DONE IT...more deadlier than the nuclear..
The Voice (issue 264 -) ran an article beginning, ' Iran has really gone and done it now. No, they haven't sent their first nuclear sub in to the Persian Gulf . They are about to launch something much more deadly -- next week the Iran Bourse will open to trade oil, not n dollars but in Euros' This apparently insignificant event has consequences far greater for the US people, indeed all for us all, than is imaginable.
Currently almost all oil buying and selling is in US-dollars through exchanges in London and New York . It is not accidental they are both US-owned..
The Wall Street crash in 1929 sparked off global depression and World War II. During that war the US supplied provisions and munitions to all its allies, refusing currency and demanding gold payments in exchange.
By 1945, 80% of the world's gold was sitting in US vaults. The dollar became the one undisputed global reserve currency -- it was treated world-wide as `safer than gold'. The Bretton Woods agreement was established.
The US took full advantage over the next decades and printed dollars like there was no tomorrow. The US exported many mountains of dollars, paying for ever-increasing amounts of commodities, tax cuts for the rich, many wars abroad, mercenaries, spies and politicians the world over. You see, this did not affect inflation at home! The US got it all for free! Well, maybe for a forest or two.
Over subsequent decades the world's vaults bulged at the seams and more and more vaults were built, just for US dollars. Each year, the US spends many more dollars abroad that at home. Analysts pretty much agree that outside the US , of the savings, or reserves, of all other countries, in gold and all currencies -- that a massive 66% of this total wealth is in US dollars!
In 1971 several countries simultaneously tried to sell a small portion of their dollars to the US for gold. Krassimir Petrov, (Ph. D. in Economics at Ohio University ) recently wrote, 'The US Government defaulted on its payment on August 15, 1971 . While popular spin told the story of `severing the link between the dollar and gold', in reality the denial to pay back in gold was an act of bankruptcy by the US Government.' The 1945 Breton Woods agreement was unilaterally smashed.
The dollar and US economy were on a precipice resembling Germany in 1929. The US now had to find a way for the rest of the world to believe and have faith in the paper dollar. The solution was in oil, in the petrodollar. The US viciously bullied first Saudi Arabia and then OPEC to sell oil for dollars only -- it worked, the dollar was saved. Now countries had to keep dollars to buy much needed oil. And the US could buy oil all over the world, free of charge. What a Houdini for the US ! Oil replaced gold as the new foundation to stop the paper dollar sinking.
Since 1971, the US printed even more mountains of dollars to spend abroad. The trade deficit grew and grew. The US sucked-in much of the world's products for next to nothing. More vaults were built.
Expert, Cóilínn Nunan, wrote in 2003, 'The dollar is the de facto world reserve currency: the US currency accounts for approximately two thirds of all official exchange reserves. More than four-fifths of all foreign exchange transactions and half of all world exports are denominated in dollars. In addition, all IMF loans are denominated in dollars.' Dr Bulent Gukay of Keele University recently wrote, 'This system of the US dollar acting as global reserve currency in oil trade keeps the demand for the dollar `artificially' high. This enables the US to carry out printing dollars at the price of next to nothing to fund increased military spending and consumer spending on imports. There is no theoretical limit to the amount of dollars that can be printed. As long as the US has no serious challengers, and the other states have confidence in the US dollar, the system functions.'
Until recently, the US-dollar has been safe. However, since 1990 Western Europe has been busy growing, swallowing up central and Eastern Europe . French and German bosses were jealous of the US ability to buy goods and people the world over for nothing. They wanted a slice of the free cake too. Further, they now had the power and established the euro in late 1999 against massive US-inspired opposition across Europe , especially from Britain - paid for in dollars of course. But the euro succeeded.
Only months after the euro-launch, Saddam's Iraq announced it was switching from selling oil in dollars only, to euros only -- breaking the OPEC agreement.. Iran , Russia , Venezuela , Libya , all began talking openly of switching too -- were the floodgates about to be opened?
Then aero planes flew into the twin-towers in September 2001. Was this another Houdini chance to save the US (petro) dollar and the biggest financial/economic crash in history? War preparations began in the US But first war-fever had to be created -- and truth was the first casualty. Other oil producing countries watched-on. In 2000 Iraq began selling oil in euros. In 2002, Iraq changed all their petro-dollars in their vaults into euros. A few months later, the US began their invasion of Iraq .
The whole world was watching: very few aware that the US was engaging in the first oil currency, or petro-dollar war. After the invasion of Iraq in March 2003, remember, the US secured oil areas first. Their first sales in August were, of course, in dollars, again. The only government building in Baghdad not bombed was the Oil Ministry! It does not matter how many people are murdered -- for the US , the petro-dollar must be saved as the only way to buy and sell oil - otherwise the US economy will crash, and much more besides.
In early 2003, Hugo Chavez, President of Venezuela talked openly of selling half of its oil in euros (the other half is bought by the US ). On 12 April 2003, the US-supported business leaders and some generals in Venezuela kidnapped Chavez and attempted a coup. The masses rose against this and the Army followed suit. The coup failed. This was bad for the US .
In November 2000 the euro/dollar was at $0.82 dollars, its lowest ever, and still diving, but when Iraq started selling oil in euros, the euro dive was halted. In April 2002 senior OPEC reps talked about trading in euros and the euro shot up. In June 2003 the US occupiers of Iraq switched trading back to dollars and the euro fell against the dollar again. In August 2003 Iran starts to sell oil in euros to some European countries and the euro rises sharply.. In the winter of 2003-4 Russian and OPEC politicians talked seriously of switching oil/gas sales to the euro and the euro rose. In February 2004 OPEC met and made no decision to turn to the euro -- and yes, the euro fell against the dollar. In June 2004 Iran announced it would build an oil bourse to rival London and New York , and again, the euro rose. The euro stands at $1.27 and has been climbing of late.
But matters this month became far, far worse for the US dollar. On 5th May Iran registered its own Oil Bourse, the IOB. Not only are they now selling oil in euros from abroad -- they have established an actual Oil Bourse, a global trading centre for all countries to buy and sell their oil!
In Chavez's recent visit to London ; he talked openly about supporting the Iranian Oil Bourse, and selling oil in euros. When asked in London about the new arms embargo imposed by the US against Venezuela , Chavez prophetically dismissed the US as 'a paper tiger'.
Currently, almost all the world's oil is sold on either the NYMEX, New York Mercantile Exchange, or the IPE, London's International Petroleum Exchange. Both are owned by US citizens and both sell and buy only in US dollars. The success of the Iran Oil Bourse makes sense to Europe , which buys 70% of Iran 's oil. It makes sense for Russia , which sells 66% of its oil to Europe . But worse for the US , China and India have already stated they are very interested in the new Iranian Oil Bourse.
If there is a tactical-nuclear strike on - deja-vu - `weapons of mass destruction' in Iran , who would bet against a certain Oil Exchange and more, being bombed too?
And worse for Bush. It makes sense for Europe , China , India and Japan-- as well as all the other countries mentioned above -- to buy and sell oil in Euro's. They will certainly have to stock-up on euros now, and they will sell dollars to do so. The euro is far more stable than the debt-ridden dollar. The IMF has recently highlighted US economic difficulties and the trade deficit strangling the US-- there is no way out.
The problem for so many countries now is how to get rid of their vaults full of dollars, before it crashes? And the US has bullied so many countries for so many decades around the world, that many will see a chance to kick the bully back. The US cannot accept even 5% of the world's dollars -- it would crash the US economy dragging much of the world with it, especially Britain .
To survive, as the Scottish Socialist Voice article stated, 'the US , needs to generate a trade surplus to get out of this one. Problem is it can't.' This is spot on. To do that they must force US workers into near slavery, to get paid less than Chinese or Indian workers. We all know that this will not happen.
What will happen in the US ? Chaos for sure. Maybe a workers revolution, but looking at the situation as it is now, it is more likely to be a re-run of Germany post-1929, and some form of extreme-right mass movement will emerge...
Does Europe and China/Asia have the economic independence and strength to stop the whole world's economies collapsing with the US ? Their vaults are full to the brim with dollars.
The US has to find a way to pay for its dollar-imperialist exploitation of the world since 1945.. Somehow, eventually, it has to account for every dollar in every vault in the world.
Bombing Iran could backfire tremendously. It would bring Iran openly into the war in Iraq , behind the Shiite majority. The US cannot cope even now with the much smaller Iraqi insurgency. Perhaps the US will feed into the Sunni v Shiite conflict and turn it into a wider Middle-East civil-war. However, this is so dangerous for global oil supplies. Further, they know that this would be temporary, as some country somewhere else, will establish a euro-oil-exchange, perhaps in Brussels .
There is one `solution' -- scrap the dollar and print a whole new currency for the US . This will destroy 66% of the rest of the world's savings/reserves in one swoop. Imagine the implications? Such are the desperate things now swimming around heads in the White House, Wall Street and Pentagon.
Another is to do as Germany did, just before invading Poland in 1938. The Nazis filmed a mock Polish Army attack on Germany , to win hearts and minds at home. But again, this is a finger in the dam. So, how is the US going to escape this time? The only global arena of total superiority left is military. Who knows what horrors lie ahead. A new world war is one tool by which the US could discipline its `allies' into keeping the dollar in their vaults.
The task of socialists today is to explain to as many as possible, especially our class, that the coming crisis belongs purely to capitalism and (dollar) imperialism. Not people of other cultures, not Islam, not the axis of evil or their so-called WMDs. Their system alone is to blame.
The new Iranian Oil Bourse, the IOB, is situated in a new building on the free-trade-zone island of Kish , in the Persian Gulf . It's computers and software are all set to go. The IOB was supposed to be up and running last March, but many pressures forced a postponement. Where the pressure came from is obvious. It was internationally registered on 5th May and supposed to open mid-May, but its opening was put off, some saying the oil-mafia was involved, along with much international pressure. ............................ In 2007 Crude was trades around 60 usd. Everyone know dollar was getting weaker and weaker day by day. Than US with the help of their two NYMEX & IPE exchange started rising the price of crude by Future trading on crude( called speculation). Today crude is around 140 usd. It means whole world who were paying 60 usd, now paying 140 usd, means demand of dollar increase to 230% and dollar start again rising. Even OPEC recently that in hike og crude, 60% contribution is due to speculation (Future market). Moral of story is USA has & will go to destroy any nation to keep its monopoly of dollar in world

Wednesday, September 3, 2008

L'Oreal Paris Menexpert

L'Oreal is a brand that is extremely popular among females. Anyone who thinks of beauty thinks of L'Oreal. But it is relatively unknown among men. If it is known at all, it is for high quality beauty care for women. So, L'Oreal has an image that is strongly feminine.
But L'Oreal wants to change that image now. With the rising of the Metrosexual Man, L'Oreal has come up with an exclusive range of men's grooming products. These products are mainly skin care and shaving products, under the brand name 'L'Oreal Paris Menexpert'
There have been similar other attempts by personal care giants trying to woo the man with products that were popular among females. Eg. HLL's Fair & Lovely Vs Fair & Lovely Menz Active, Fair and Handsome, etc.
The current stigma associated with beauty for men and also the rift between the sexes does not let men touch anything that is remotely feminine. India is definitely one of the more masculine cultures where males would like to keep an arm's length from products associated to females. No one will publicly admit using a product or get caught anywhere around it. Yet, products are flying off the shelves really fast.
Question
With such a strong feminine image attached with L'Oreal, how would you as a brand manager deal with the task of making a success out of Menexpert and thus come close to Men too? What role can women play to help you out?
(This case study is provided by FMCG Marketers http://www.fmcgmarketers.com/ and is created by Mr. C.Seshagiri )If you want our panel of marketing experts and Mr. C.Seshagiri to analyse your solutions then send your solutions to aggarwal.prabal@gmail.com

Friday, August 8, 2008

Contents of a Business Plan

Executive Summary
Vision, mission, objectives
Current state of business
Products and services
Strategy and sources of sustainable competitive advantage
Customer acceptance
Summary financial forecasts
Money required, timing and deal on offer

Basic business information
Title
Contents
Contact Information
Document control
Proffesional advisers
Definitions
Legal structure and corporate data

Current Business situation
Definition of current business and its markets
Corporate history, major events and past financial performance
Current business and market position
Core competencies
Current business organisation and outline business infrastructure

Strategic analysis
Political, economic, social and technical anlysis and impacts
Key differentiators and unique selling points
VRIO analysis
Core competencies
Confirguration of resources
Value add analysis
Value chain analysis
Value system
Resource audit
Operations resources
Human Resources
Organisational resources
Financial resources
Industry life cycle
Industry structure
Competitor analysis
SWOT analysis

Strategic Plan
Vision, mission and objectives
Sources of sustainable competitive advantage
Competitive position
Marketing positioning
Brand Strategy
Portfolio strategy
Business design

Marketing Plan
Market segments, size and growth
Description of customers and customers needs
Target market segments
Product positioning and value proposition
Marketing mix
Description of products and services
Pricing and discounting
Advertising and promotional plans
Channel and distribution strategy
Guarantees and warranties
After sales service and customer care
Comparison with competition
Performance and economics
Marketing forecasts

Operations/Production
Physical location
Make or buy considerations
The production process
Facilities, equipment and machinery
Scalability of operations
Engineering and design support
Quality control plans
Staffing recruitments
Sources of supply of key materials

Research and Development
Objectives
Organisation
Plans
Resources

Management and Organisation
Organisation chart
Top Management
Management's ability to deliver the plan
Corporate governance and shareholder control
Staffing
Recruitment
Training
Labour Relations
Office space and amenities
Employee and related costs



Forecasts and financial Data
Summary of performance ratio
Sales forecast
Assumptions underpinning financial forecasts
Profit and loss account
Balance sheet
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Business Controls
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Appendices
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How to find the impact of Advertisement?

Hello friends
Recently, I was reading Marketing Management by Philip Kotler. One topic struck my mind. How to measure the impact of the advertisement?
Just think. With billions in budget, the marketing and advertisement guys do their best to have powerful and memorable ads. But the point, is does it give any results? If yes, then how much?
I am sure, this is the question that bugs every marketing and advertising professional.
So, I asked the following question on one forum.
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Question
Hello Friends


When we design the marketing campaign, we focus on three factors i.e. Reach, Frequency and Impact. Now reach, can be obtained through the media agencies like the readership of the newspapers, and the categories of the readership. Frequency, can also be calculated via various quantitative techniques, like you can tail the target customer, and find out the frequency of exposure, he gets to the particular type of media. But, I am unable to understand, how to find the impact Can anybody help me to understand this?

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Responses

Dear Prabal, I would like to talk about what I understand of the issues that you've raised. When we design a marketing campaign, we do not focus on reach, frequency and impact alone. A marketing campaign adheres to the marketing plan (sample attached). Hence these three factors are only a part of the whole (marketing) plan. Reach, frequency and impact come under the domain of ADVERTISING and/or MEDIA CAMPAIGN. Although roles overlap, reach and frequency are taken care of by media planning agencies. Impact is measured by the media planners, ad agency and even the client. To measure the impact, the media vehicle details (like reach, frequency) are collated from media agencies (say TAM) by the ad agency and the company. The ad agency may or may not do a "Communication Research" in which they do a market survey to "test" and analyze the response of the target audience. The ad agency may do primary research to gauge the public opinion and a secondary research to gauge the response of the critics. Then they arrive at the "impact" of the ad campaign on the brand - whether the ads have succeeded to position the brand in the mind of the customers as intended. The company may or may not do a litmus test on its brand equity to measure the "impact" of the ad campaign on its brand. But as many marketers, and definitely the sales managers, will say - The "real impact" is measured by the ACTUAL SALES as all this effort is directed at only one goal - making the balance sheet look good!
Links:
http://www.csu.edu.au/division/marketing/downloads/Marketing_Plan_template1...



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If it moves people to do something (hopefully purchase something in most cases or at least be remembered correctly in terms of brand and message) it has had an impact. If it doesn't, it hasn't. Simple eh? Many things are unless people are getting paid to unnecessarily complicate them.
Messages from Peter Palmer (1):

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Agree to Peters views. Impact will be positive as well negative, neutral one will not be considered good from placement as well campaign point of view. To me impact can be as simple as getting numbers/data for Has campaign succedded in reaching potential audience/targets/buyers with appropriate message, with acceptable cost. Has potential audience/targets/buyers started finding more about product/service Has potential audience/targets/buyers started enquiring about product/service at sell points Have they started buying it finally, how much, how frequently, hows feedback so far? Are they buying it again and again and helping brand building through loyalty as well value add to customer. With above data one can check how much your service/product is eating into competition business etc.. Hope this helps. regds- Vijay
Messages from Vijay Kurhade (1):


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Impact is the ability to create sales - so measure sales. Or if the advertising is not directly focused on sales, then its increase in something like brand strength or consideration - this can be obtained from market research. Other possibilities for estimates of impact include enquiries, returned coupons, visits to a website.
Messages from Saul Dobney (1):


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Impact have to call out the shock in the customer and to encourage him to the purchase product( I say that purchase without the reflection so example the small child ask for next ice cream) not so much the frequency because this can bore but to calculate the cost of attainment to the customer - for the best on the 1000 persons. Effective reach of advertisement good tools for this for example GRP(Gross Rating Points) or TRP( Target Rating Points). I like better to use GRP. I think that impact is the pressure on the customer something in the kind of buy this if you are not you be wrongful - you will fall down about 1 level in social hierarchy, everyone of use wants to boast this stay in our nature. Nobody does want to be beyond of the sociable cream
Messages from Lukasz Urbaniak (3):


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You can do some research to measure the effect of your campaign - some metrics such as brand awareness, image, etc. With media you should get a post-buy analysis The best proof is your sales though ;)
Messages from Mirek mirpo POLYNIAK (1):


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Prabal, This a very good question. However, what you are describing is not a marketing campaign, but an advertising/ media campaign which is a part of a marketing campaign. A marketing campaign can have two prime targets: - creating brand awareness By which we use mostly mass media (that what you where describing). - creating sales By which we use mostly direct marketing to reach our goals The campaign itself can be focussed on one or the other or both targets. I will leave direct marketing for another discussion and will focus on the term ‘brand awareness’. Within ‘brand awareness’ you again have different possibilities of setting targets, for example: - creating top of mind awareness - creating a certain Public Image - etc. Know we come to your question: “How the measure the impact of advertisement? “ To measure the impact of advertisement directly is very difficult. Their always creative ways to measure a certain part of your advertisement campaign off course, but most often the results are not reliable. A better way is to link the ‘impact’ to the target you have set for the campaign, think of creating top of mind awareness. Before you start your campaign you have data regarding the current situation; simple example is that from a 1000 persons 200 think of your name first during a survey. Know you can measure the impact by holding the exact same survey again after your campaign and compare the results with the previous survey. The impact of your advertising campaign is measured on the comparing of the two survey’s and their results.
Messages from Sebastiaan van Aard (3):


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Hi Prabal, I think conversion/ sales would be tangible impact. You could also measure brand awareness, advertisement recal etc pre and post advertisement for impact evaluation.
Messages from Yogesh Bisht (2):

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Prabal, When you say 'impact' I'm not sure whether you are referring to sales impact or communication impact. But, reach and frequency are surrogate measures for what a marketer really cares about, sales. If a communication metric is necessary you should look towards awareness because you can make better correlations to sales this way.
Messages from David Adelman (1):


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Prabal, It is quite an interesting question, however, the answers are pretty basic. Reach and Frequency are measurements of the depth of your advertisement reaching your target audience, frequency is the number of times your target is exposed to the ad. Impact is the results which moves the consumer to take action. This is measured by sales, visits to the web, tracking, pre and post focus groups, etc. However, remember, that if we all knew the answers all of the time regarding this question, we probably would not be discussing it now :). Fran


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Sales of course is a the most direct metric, however that can be constrained by factors like distrbution and pricing. To understand the AD IMPACT ie whether the ad motivated the consumer to consider purchasing the brand the following simple metrics would give you a good idea. - ad awareness - how many people recall seeing the ad - message recall- what do they remember from the ad - Impact on purchase intent and brand image- difference in purchase /trial intent and brand image ratings amongst those aware of ad vs those not aware These metrics can be obtained via primary research.
Messages from Asit Gupta (1):


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Prabal- Impact can be defined from a media point-of-view, such as R/F. Media impact is more or less measured by setting some level of effective communications level... e.g. reach at the 3+ frequency level and effective GRP's (a/k/a ERP's). However, a more salient measurement is whether your ad resonates with your audience and does the messaging communicates to them. This can be determined via focus groups, copy testing, etc. Hopefully, this will translate to increased sales and/or increased awareness of your product or service.
Messages from Stan Weinstein (1):


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When we traverse Marketing through to Sales and are looking at the success of any campaign - 'impact' is best measured by looking at your order book....It's simple from that perspective Ensure you define specific milestones at various stages along the campaign timeline as this will allow you to trend the success or failure of the campaign. The metrics you create will vary according to the nature and reach of the campaign.
Messages from Sam Thiara (1):
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